AM
Answer · Updated 2 minutes agoHigh Risk

Red Sea disruption is threatening global flows of LNG and container shipping

Houthi attacks and military response are causing reroutes, delays, and higher costs.

Why it mattersSuez Canal is the fastest route between Asia and Europe for ~12% of global trade and ~30% of LNG volumes.
Choke pointBab el-Mandeb Strait12.6N, 43.3EHigh Risk
Impact windowOngoing7-14 days avg delay
Confidence85%

Butterfly Effect Chain

Raw Material / InputMarine Fuel
Processing / NetworkCarrier Network
Choke PointBab el-Mandeb Strait
TransportationContainer Flows
Exposed TickersMAERSK, MSC

Impact Snapshot

Shipments at Risk128LNG vessels
Trade Value at Risk$23.4BEst. value
Avg. Delay7-14 daysvs. normal
Cost Increase+18-35%freight rate impact
Emissions Impact+0.7 Mt CO₂eEst. additional
Geographies Affected24Countries

Active Disruptors

EventStatusImpactUpdated
Houthi attacks in Red SeaOngoingHigh
US/UK military responseOngoingHigh
Suez Canal security updatesOngoingMedium
Sanctions on Russian LNGOngoingMedium
Panama Canal low waterOngoingLow

Industries Impacted

IndustryExposureImpact
Power GenerationHighHigh
Industrial ManufacturingHighHigh
ChemicalsMediumMedium
Metals & MiningMediumMedium
Retail & ConsumerLowLow
ButterflySupply Chain Intelligence
3
Choke point

Bab el-Mandeb Strait

12.6N, 43.3E · Updated 2h ago

Very High Risk
Confidence85%
Risk Score85 / 100
DisruptionHigh
Est. Delay7-14 days
Trend (7D)↗ Rising

Supply Chain Impact

Raw Material / InputMarine Fuel
Processing / NetworkCarrier Network
Choke PointBab el-Mandeb Strait
TransportationContainer Flows
Exposed TickersMAERSK, MSC

Top Impacts

Shipments at Risk128Very High
Trade Value at Risk$23.4BHigh
Affected Companies32High
Est. Delay7-14 daysHigh
Reroute Distance+3,200 kmMedium
Insurance Cost Change+18%Medium

Route context (9 main routes)

142637
High RiskMedium RiskLower Risk

Affected Summary

Countries24
Products47
Tickers32
Routes7
Sources9

Top Affected Companies

MMaerskVery High
MMSCHigh
CCMA CGMHigh
HHapag-LloydHigh

Key Official Sources

UN
Review of Maritime TransportMay 15, 2025 · 08:40 UTC
Official
UN
UNCTAD Data Hub shipping connectivityMay 15, 2025 · 09:41 UTC
Official
IN
PortWatchMay 15, 2025 · 010:42 UTC
Official
ButterflySupply Chain Intelligence
SR
Container shippingCarriers, containers, megaship ports, transshipment hubs, canals, longshore labor, seafarers, rail/truck drayage, and retail/factory supply.
3D Dependency Globe
Drag to rotate / 9 live routes
  1. 1Carrier schedulesCompany / global carriers
  2. 2Boxes / cranesProcess / boxes / terminal gear
  3. 3China export portsFacility / China export ports
  4. 4Transshipment hubsRoute / hub ports
  5. 5Suez / Red SeaRoute / Asia-Europe chokepoint
  6. 6Panama CanalRoute / Americas chokepoint
  7. 7Import portsFacility / U.S. / EU gateways
  8. 8Port / crew laborProcess / labor and crews
  9. 9Goods / factoriesMarket / warehouses / factories
Layers
Route RiskLowMediumHighCriticalDisrupted
1Strait of Hormuz RouteRisk: Critical

Persian Gulf -> Strait -> Asia

Impact if disrupted: Silver, Oil, LNG, Chemicals
2Trans-Pacific RouteRisk: High

N. America -> Pacific Ports

Impact if disrupted: Electronics, Solar, EV Parts
3South America RouteRisk: Medium

Peru/Chile -> Asia/Europe

Impact if disrupted: Silver, Copper, Lithium
4Europe RouteRisk: Low

Europe -> Asia via Suez

Impact if disrupted: Industrial Goods, Machinery
5Asia Intra-RegionalRisk: Low

East Asia <-> SE Asia

Impact if disrupted: Components, Semiconductors
My WatchlistSilver (Ag)Lithium (Li)Cobalt (Co)Nickel (Ni)ASMLJet Fuel (ATF)Neodymium (Nd)Copper (Cu)NAND FlashSolar Cells
Official Source Backplane

Every answer stays tied to source families, not random articles.

A shipping chokepoint compounds quickly: rerouting adds days or weeks, pulls extra vessels into the same trade, raises freight and insurance cost, traps containers in the wrong region, and then shows up as factory stoppages, retail shortages, late repair parts, food spoilage, and higher prices.

Use government, intergovernmental, exchange, standards-body, or company-disclosed sources first.Article and blog content can describe context, but cannot create an evidence edge in the graph.If a facility, supplier, cargo, or customer link is not disclosed, keep it marked as unknown instead of inventing it.Every edge stores source tier, cadence, relation type, confidence, and the last observed source family.
All Traded Products21 HS sections / 96 chapters / 5,000+ subheadings

Every product starts from HS taxonomy, then receives material/process/company edges only when official or disclosed evidence exists.

Minerals, Energy, Food, Chemicals90+ USGS minerals plus IEA critical minerals and EIA energy chains

Material coverage combines USGS mineral sheets, IEA critical mineral pathways, EIA energy data, and official agriculture/energy extensions.

All Reporting Countries and EconomiesUN Comtrade reporters plus World Bank country indicators

Country exposure is built from reporter, partner, import, export, tariff, logistics, and source-concentration indicators.

Ports, Chokepoints, Liner Connectivity, Internet CablesChokepoints, ports, country connectivity, maritime baselines, and submarine cable corridors

Routes are represented as chokepoint, port, country-pair, cable-corridor, and shipping-mode layers rather than as a single decorative map line.

Disruption Event LayersWeather, seismic, fire, energy, port, sanctions, utility, and logistics signals

Event detection links official hazard feeds to facilities, routes, materials, and product dependencies.

Metals and Alloys

steel Fe-C-MnAHSS auto steelstainless 304/316 Fe-Cr-Ni-Moelectrical steel Fe-Sialuminum 6xxx/7xxxTi-6Al-4VInconel 718brass Cu-Znbronze Cu-Snsolder Sn-Ag-CuAg-Cu brazingNdFeB magnets

Chemicals and Process Inputs

ammoniasulfuric acidchlorine/causticethylenepropylenemethanolsolventsisocyanatesepoxy resinsPV silver pastephotoresistshydrofluoric acid

Semiconductor Specials

EUV lithographyASML/Zeiss opticssilicon wafersneonkryptonxenonABF substratesadvanced packagingHBMauto MCUsphotomaskspellicles

Energy and Logistics

crude oilnatural gasLNGjet fueldieselrefineriespipelinesHormuzSuezMalaccaPanama Canalport connectivity

Digital Backbone

submarine fiberrepeaterspower feed equipmentcable shipslanding stationsIXPscloud regionsCDNspayment networksAI inferencetelecom roaming

Products Impacted

AI serversEVsaircraftautosrepair partssolar PVmedical devicesgrid equipmentsnack foodsfertilizerpaintsphones